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Update: Right, so I totally lost this bet. I ended up getting 12 guesses wrong, which, sadly enough, lies fairly out of the range of my “I won’t get more than six wrong” prediction. So, true to my word, I listened to Justin Bieber’s Believe. All 17 tracks of it. I’ll have a review up for it sometime Monday. And I can’t stress this enough: I’ve learned absolutely nothing from this experience.

Once a year, a group of well-connected, old white men get together to tell us what films they liked the most. We, as an audience, are then asked to sit for three hours as sexy, rich people get awards. All of this, more often than not, is hosted by Bob Hope or Billy Crystal. And in spite of all that, I honestly can’t wait for Sunday night’s Oscars. Now, through a combination of stereotyping, sweeping generalizations, and educated guessing, I’ve put together a list of my picks for the Academy Awards this year. Just to make sure I knew what I was talking about, I even managed to see all the Best Picture nominees. I did my research. These picks are basically a guarantee. In fact, I’m so confident in who I selected that I’ll make a bet. If I get less than 75% of these right (more than 6 out of the 24 categories wrong)…I will listen to the entirety of Justin Bieber’s latest album, Believe. And I’ll do it publicly on Spotify. And then I’ll write an honest review of it either here or on Twitter (@Rujabes). So you can see and read how much I’m suffering.

Believe-JB-Album

There’s a lot on the line here.

Let me reiterate, these picks are not necessarily the films or actors/actresses I’m personally rooting for, just the most likely winners. Also, go here to see the full list of nominees, since I won’t list each one. Let’s get to it.

Best Picture

This is probably the hardest one to predict. All the nominees were excellent. This is difficult, and I have no idea how they’ll ever pick – I’m totally joking. It’s gonna be Lincoln.

Lincoln_Poster

Once again, remember that the Academy is made up of old white men. A slow-boiling political drama about American history starring probably the greatest living actor of our age and directed by one of the greatest directors ever? And it’s about black people getting their freedom – sort of – so, to the Academy it’s topical? That’s what’s known as Oscar bait. What would be hilarious is if Argo won, but then that’d have to acknowledge that the Academy snubbed Ben Affleck. Even though it won’t, I want Django Unchained to win, personally. In this age of ubiquitous comic book movies, Tarantino subtly gave the world a black superhero film cloaked in a slavery-set spaghetti Western. And that’s pretty amazing.

Actor (Leading Role)

Read the last part. Daniel Day-Lewis. Moving on.

Actress (Leading Role)

This is legitimately the most difficult category to predict this year. The hardest thing to factor is having both the youngest and the oldest nominees ever (Quvenzhané Wallis and Emmanuelle Riva, respectively) face off against each other. The Academy always tries to have at least one category where the unexpected happens, like that one year where Shakespeare in Love beat Saving Private Ryan and Life is Beautiful for Best Picture. But if that’s the case, does that mean that neither will win or one of the two will? All that being said, though I’m rooting for Quvenzhané Wallis, I’m guessing Jennifer Lawrence will probably come out on top. She’s been nominated before for Winter’s Bone and was pretty great in Silver Linings Playbook.

Actor (Supporting)

Tommy Lee Jones. Because once again, Lincoln.

Actress (Supporting)

Anne Hathaway. Catwoman’s got this locked down. Pretty impressive since she was only in the movie for maybe 15 minutes, and 4 of them were her song.

Animated Feature Film

This is usually the award Pixar always wins by default, so Brave. I personally loved Wreck It Ralph a lot more though.

Cinematography

Life of Pi. Lincoln can’t win everything, and the gorgeous vistas in Life of Pi are a no-brainer.

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Costume Design

When in doubt, choose Lincoln. That stovepipe hat was classy as hell.

Directing

Steven Spielberg. Once again, because of Lincoln. But he won’t enjoy it as much knowing he only won because Ben Affleck – who’s won like every other directing award this season – wasn’t even nominated.

Documentary Feature

The only one of these I actually saw was The Invisible War. So…that by default.

Documentary Short

I saw none of these. So judging entirely by their names, I’m going with Redemption, because it sounds the most dramatic.

Film Editing

Editing? Who gives a fu – Zero Dark Thirty, I guess.

Foreign Language Film

Amour. I mean it’s up for Best Picture. It wouldn’t really make any sense if it lost this. The Academy kind of nominated themselves into a logical corner with this one.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Les Miserables. Who says you can’t look good while singing and dying in France?

Music (Original Score)

Lincoln. When John Williams hums a song in the shower, an angel gets its wings.

Music (Original Song)

Skyfall. Although seeing Seth MacFarlane win for singing a song as a CGI bear would be pretty great.

Production Design

Lincoln. Because nothing’s more visually interesting than old legislative buildings.

Short Film (Animated)

Paperman. Just awesome.

Short Film (Live Action)

Didn’t really see any of these. So…I dunno…Death of a Shadow?

Sound Editing

I remember watching Argo and being so blown away by the sound editing that I totally missed the entire plot. Because that’s how noticeable this category is.

Sound Mixing

Les Miserables. I mean, it’s a musical, right?

Visual Effects

It’s tight between The Hobbit, Life of Pi, and The Avengers. I’m guessing The Hobbit will win. Most of it was CG, after all, and the High Frame Rate technology was pretty innovative.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Django Unchained. Tarantino has won before for Pulp Fiction and he’s overdue for another one. His screenplays are amazing to read. He writes like he’s casually telling you a story over a cold drink.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Lincoln. Once again, when in doubt, guess Lincoln. If only the real Lincoln was more succesful in theaters.

So, there you go. Those are my picks. I’ll edit this tomorrow night when I win the wager.

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